For the energy industry, the Paris Agreement signed at the end of 2015 puts forward the goal of controlling global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius before industrialization and 1.5 degrees Celsius, which indicates that low carbon development is already in place. The global occupation of moral high grounds is bound to have a major impact on the development of the global energy industry, and a new round of energy transformation is coming.
 
Compared with the previous two rounds of energy transformation (coal replacement of fuelwood, oil and gas replacement of coal), the current evolution of the new round of energy transformation is very obvious, that is, energy utilization is more clean, low carbon and efficient The transformation trend, especially characterized by 3D (Decarbonisation decarbonization, Digitalisation digitization, Decentralisation decentralization), is becoming more and more visible. In accordance with this trend, the high probability of human beings in the middle of this century will enter the "multiple energy era", which should be an irreversible general trend.
 
A new round of energy transformation has begun to take shape
 
Although the new round of energy transformation is in its infancy, there are obvious differences compared with the previous two energy transformations. The author believes that the following aspects of the characteristics are worthy of attention:
 
First, the scale utilization of renewable energy is a significant sign of a new round of energy transformation.
Different from coal replacement fuelwood and oil substitution coal in the previous two energy transitions, under the background of the strong carbon budget of the Paris Agreement, the third energy transformation that is taking place is bound to be more use of low-carbon energy and carbon-free energy. High carbon fossil energy.
 
In recent years, the scale of renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaics has been expanding, and the cost has fallen sharply. It has become the “mainstream” of global energy utilization. As of the end of 2017, the cumulative total installed capacity of renewable energy in the world reached 2,195 GW, accounting for about 30% of the total installed capacity of the world's power generation; the power generation reached 6.21 trillion kWh, accounting for 26.5% of all power production. Hydropower renewable electricity accounts for about 10%). In some countries, non-hydropower renewable power accounts for even 30% to 50%, which can meet 100% instantaneous power demand.

 
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, wind power and photovoltaic power generation will account for more than 50% of the global power structure by 2050. Of course, from the natural attributes of energy products, this round of transformation is more about the use of “unusable” energy sources (such as wind, light and other new energy sources with discontinuity and low density characteristics) to replace relatively “easy to use” energy. The pattern of energy production has gradually moved toward “decentralization” and “decentralization”, which will surely bring about major adjustments in global energy production and consumption patterns.
 
Second, re-electrification is an important feature of a new round of energy transformation.
Raising the level of electrification is a key factor in the decarbonization of the global economy, and all primary energy is competing for “tickets” to the entrance to electricity. The “re-electrification” is mainly reflected in the deep replacement of electric energy to fossil energy.
 
According to BP's World Energy Statistical Yearbook 2018, global primary energy consumption increased from 11.27 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2006 to 13.51 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2017, with an average annual compound growth rate of 1.65%; The global power generation increased from 19.1 trillion kWh in 2006 to 25.6 trillion kWh in 2017, with an average annual compound growth rate of 2.7%, which is one higher than the average annual growth rate of primary energy. percentage point. According to some organizations, nearly 70% of global new energy consumption will be used for power generation in the next 20 years; by 2050, the proportion of power in global terminal energy will increase from the current 20% to 45%. The share of electricity in China's total final energy use will increase from the current 21% to 47%. The role of “re-electrification” has been increasingly prominent in promoting a new round of energy transformation.
 
Third, the new round of energy transformation is largely a foreign-driven transformation.
To achieve the warming control goal of the Paris Agreement, the existing policy is obviously insufficient. The IEA's new policy scenario suggests that the current published policies, including the reductions in emissions from nationally independent contributions under the Paris Agreement, are far from sufficient to avoid the serious effects of climate change.
 
Although Shell's “Alpine Scene” and “Ocean Scenario” both point to “net zero emissions” at the end of the 21st century, it is still unable to achieve the warming control target of the Paris Agreement (the global temperature rise is expected to reach 2.5 degrees Celsius at the end of the 21st century). . Under the gradual transition scenario of BP, global carbon emissions will increase by about 10% by 2040, and it is also impossible to complete the temperature control target. The accelerated transformation of the global energy system requires more radical policy support.
 
IEA's 2014 special report "World Energy Investment Outlook" analyzes the investment demand and sources of the energy industry in the next 20 years, and believes that the investment demand of the energy industry depends on the government's policy measures and incentives relative to the role of competitive market signals. stronger. Especially in the promotion of low-carbon development of electricity, between 2014 and 2035, only 1 trillion of the $17 trillion required for the power industry may come from competitive markets.
 
Fourth, the deep integration of digital technology and energy system is a key factor in determining the success of a new round of energy transformation.
With the development of Internet technology and new energy technologies in recent years, human beings are currently on the eve of a new round of industrial revolution. In his book The Third Industrial Revolution, Jeremy Rifkin focuses on the “five pillars” of the third industrial revolution (covering energy Internet, energy storage, distributed energy, and transition to renewable energy). Wait). In Rifkin's view, the key to the third industrial revolution is to build a new energy system and industrial model, in which the development of Internet technology and new energy systems will greatly promote the third industrial revolution.
 
BP also believes that the rapid and efficient development of new technologies such as next-generation computers, automotive batteries, 3D printing, fuel cells, solar energy conversion, driverless, big data analysis, and hydrogen energy will change energy in Technology Outlook 2018. The way production, supply and use provide great potential. A new round of digital revolution will provide strong support for energy transformation.