Recently, the new PV strategy has finally begun to solicit opinions, which makes the PV industry people happy. Consistent with previous predictions, the final PV subsidy new policy is basically consistent with the draft for comments that flowed out on February 18th. The total subsidy of 3 billion yuan and the special subsidies for household use of photovoltaics have been implemented.
 
There have been a lot of influences on the previous policies and analysis articles. We have chosen a few new places to pay attention to.
 
First, I class resource area or direct parity online
By browsing the full text of the "2019 Photovoltaic Power Generation Construction Management Work Plan", it can be found that the relevant departments seem to have basically defaulted to the direct access to the Class I resource area. In other words, in addition to the arranged front-runner projects, poverty alleviation projects, demonstration projects, etc., the Class I resource area should become the main area for reporting the Internet project, while the subsidized projects are not available.
In the fourth point of the fourth article of the program, “Comprehensive implementation of market competition in ordinary projects”, we can see that when the tariff rules are revised for the declared projects, we can see that the tariff correction rules are set in the II resource zone and the III resource zone. There is no tariff revision rule for the Class I resource area.
Does this mean that there is no need to declare subsidized PV projects in the Class I resource area?
 
Second, the household market analysis
In the household market that everyone is extremely concerned about, the policy gives the expected answer: a special subsidy of 750 million yuan is given, and the estimated size is 3.5 GW, so there is no need to participate in the bidding. The fly in the ointment is that 3.5GW of capacity needs to be subtracted from last year's inventory power station project, so for this year's new household projects, its scale has been compressed.
From the point of view of the importance of the program, the household project is still the most developmental project in the photovoltaic industry, but the total subsidy limits its development. In 2019, its development trend should be stable.
 
Third, a brief analysis of the bidding method
Among the total subsidies of 3 billion yuan, the household projects were divided into 750 million yuan, and the remaining 2.25 billion yuan was used for bidding for ordinary photovoltaic projects. It is worth mentioning that the subsidies for photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects do not participate in the allocation of the total subsidy of 2.25 billion yuan, which is an invisible advantage.
 
Therefore, in addition to special projects such as household use and poverty alleviation, projects that can participate in the 2.25 billion subsidy declaration include:
1. Ordinary photovoltaic power station: photovoltaic power station with installed capacity of 6 MW and above;
2. Industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects: all kinds of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects other than household photovoltaics with local development, nearby utilization and single-point grid-connected installed capacity of less than 6 MW
3. Special projects and demonstration projects implemented by national organizations
However, the above-mentioned declarable projects will eventually receive subsidies and bidding is required. Regarding the bidding rules, the revised tariffs mentioned in the plan require special attention.
 
Original policy:
The National Energy Administration selects the items included in the subsidy range according to the revised on-line price quotes for the subsidized items from low to high.
 
The correction rules are:
(1)   Ordinary photovoltaic power station and full-scale on-grid industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation project: Revised electricity price in Class II resource area = declared electricity price -0.05 yuan / kWh, revised electricity price in Class III resource area = declared electricity price - 0.15 yuan / Kilowatt hours.
 
(2) Spontaneous self-use, surplus electricity online industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation project: revised electricity price = declared electricity price - the province's coal-fired benchmark electricity price +0.3 yuan / kWh, of which coal-fired benchmark electricity price is less than 0.3 yuan / kWh area For the project, the declared electricity price will not be revised.
 
(3) The declared electricity price is 0.1%/kWh as the minimum quotation unit.
 
I believe that many people in the industry have seen that the above revised electricity price rules are somewhat blind. This means that in addition to the declaration of the electricity price, the project will ultimately be subject to the revised electricity price. Finally, the revised electricity prices are sorted from low to high, and are included in the subsidy range in order.
 
In addition, since the revised on-grid tariffs are sorted according to the installed capacity of each project from small to large, the project with the smaller capacity is more likely to be included in the subsidy.
According to the 2018 desulfurization coal price list, the regions with less than 0.3 yuan are Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia. That is to say, the electricity price subsidies in these three regions are basically not affected by the revised electricity price, and the electricity price is mainly declared.
 
Suspense? Where is the subsidy standard?
It is worth mentioning that although the PV poverty alleviation project and the household PV project have special subsidies, this time, the subsidy standards for these two types of projects have not been disclosed.
According to the previous symposium on January 18 and January 22, 2019, the subsidy standard for household photovoltaic power generation is 0.18 yuan / kWh. According to the policy trend circulating last week, it is also reported that household PV may maintain the original subsidy standard.
As for the subsidy standard, the program did not mention it, so the above speculation is not allowed. The author believes that the subsidy standard for poverty alleviation projects may remain high, but the standard for household subsidies has not been greatly affected, because the household size this year has been relatively determined to be 3.5GW, so what is the final subsidy standard, the installed scale and There is no room for change in the market space.

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